Weekend Market Review: 25 April 2026 – Gold Holds Near $4,710, JSE Under Pressure, Rand Steady
As we close out the trading week of 25 April 2026, markets are digesting a busy period shaped by geopolitical tensions, central bank signalling, and commodity price movements. Here’s your weekend summary of the key developments that matter for South African investors.
Gold (XAU/USD): Holding Firm Near Record Territory
Gold closed the week at approximately $4,710 per ounce, after touching $4,723.60 on Thursday 24 April — a 0.54% daily gain. The yellow metal has risen an extraordinary 42% over the past 12 months, reflecting sustained demand driven by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, and inflation hedging.
Markets are now positioning cautiously ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting scheduled for 28–29 April, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged amid persistent inflation above target. The gold price in rand terms remains elevated, providing a notable tailwind for South African gold mining shares and rand-hedged portfolios.
JSE: Pullback Continues From Record Highs
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) traded in the 115,900–116,500 range on Friday, slipping approximately 0.4–0.5% during the session. The JSE Top 40 Index tested 107,200 support, with both indices now more than 3% below the record highs reached earlier this month.
Mining shares led the losses, weighed down by US-Iran tensions that have injected uncertainty into commodity supply chains. Resource-heavy counters, which had been the primary drivers of the JSE’s rally, are now the source of the pullback as investors reassess risk.
Rand (USD/ZAR): Holding Its Ground
The South African rand traded at approximately R16.54 per US dollar, showing resilience despite global headwinds. The currency has been supported by South Africa’s relatively favourable inflation picture and the interest rate differential, though the Middle East conflict remains a key risk factor.
SARB Monetary Policy: Shifting Expectations
The South African Reserve Bank’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, released this week, has shifted the interest rate outlook meaningfully:
- The repo rate remains at 6.75% (prime lending rate at 10.25%)
- Headline inflation slowed to 3.0% in February 2026 — with 2025’s average of 3.2% marking a 21-year low
- The SARB revised its 2026 inflation forecast down to 3.3% from 3.5%
- However, upside inflation risks from the oil shock mean markets are now pricing in two potential 25 basis-point hikes this year — a dramatic reversal from the two cuts that were expected before the Middle East conflict escalated
- The SARB’s worst-case scenario models interest rates returning to 8%
Governor Lesetja Kganyago noted that inflation is expected to reach the new 3% target by 2028, but the near-term path remains uncertain.
Week Ahead: What to Watch
- US FOMC Decision (28–29 April): Markets expect rates on hold, but the tone of the statement will be closely watched for signals on the path forward
- US-Iran Developments: Any escalation or de-escalation will have immediate effects on oil prices, the rand, and risk assets globally
- SA Economic Data: Watch for trade balance and manufacturing PMI releases
- Earnings Season: Several JSE-listed companies report this week
Perspective for Long-Term Investors
Periods of market uncertainty often test investor resolve. The current environment — with elevated gold prices, a JSE pulling back from highs, and shifting interest rate expectations — underscores the importance of maintaining a well-diversified portfolio aligned with your personal financial goals and risk tolerance.
Diversification across asset classes, geographies, and currencies remains a time-tested approach to navigating uncertain markets. If you’re unsure how current market conditions affect your financial plan, speaking with a qualified financial adviser can provide clarity.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, or investment advice. Old Mutual Secunda is an authorised Financial Services Provider. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Old Mutual is a Licensed Financial Services Provider (FSP 604).
