Daily Market Update: 1 April 2026 — Q2 Opens With Fuel Shock & Iran De-escalation Hopes

As Q2 opens, markets are digesting a turbulent March and watching closely for signs of de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Here’s your morning briefing for 1 April 2026.

💱 Forex Snapshot

The rand recovered to R16.89/$ after touching four-month lows of R17.20 last week. The recovery was supported by a softer US dollar and rising precious metals prices. However, the rand lost almost 5% in March amid the Iran conflict fallout.

📦 Commodities

Gold edged higher to $4,676 on tentative signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. Despite this, gold remains nearly 19% below January’s record highs after plunging 13% in March — its steepest monthly drop since October 2008.

Oil remains elevated above $104 as the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues. Iranian drones struck fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport yesterday, adding to attacks on energy infrastructure. President Trump suggested US forces could withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks.

📈 JSE Performance

The JSE All Share Index bounced 1.47% to 114,068 on the last day of March, but the index still lost over 10% for the month — reflecting the massive risk-off sentiment during the Iran conflict. The ALSI remains 26.8% higher year-on-year, supported by strong resource stocks.

🌍 Key Headlines

🇿🇦 SA Fuel Price Hike — Biggest Since 2008

South African gasoline prices will increase by R3.06 per litre from today — the largest hike in almost two decades. The surge in oil prices and rand weakness from the Iran war are the primary drivers. Finance Minister Godongwana announced a temporary fuel levy reduction to partially offset the impact.

🛢️ Oil Forecasts Raised Sharply

Reuters reports the steepest hike yet in oil price forecasts due to the Iran conflict. Global oil markets are expected to run deficits in Q2 before moving into a small surplus by year-end. Over 140 SA fuel stations are already facing shortages.

🕊️ Iran De-escalation Signals

Trump told reporters that a deal with Iran is possible, and Tehran signalled willingness to end the war under certain conditions. Two-thirds of Americans want a quick end to the conflict. Markets are cautiously optimistic but remain wary — Trump’s nationwide address on Iran is scheduled for later today.

🔮 Outlook

Q2 opens with a cautious tone. The fuel price hike will squeeze consumers and push inflation higher — SARB held rates at 6.75% in March but warned of potential increases if the Persian Gulf conflict drags on. SA inflation at 3.0% gives some breathing room, but that could change fast with $104+ oil.

Key events today: Trump’s nationwide address on Iran • Q2 portfolio rebalancing • SA fuel price adjustment takes effect.

Source: Trading Economics, Reuters, Bloomberg. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Old Mutual is a Licensed Financial Services Provider.