Daily Market Update: 18 April 2026 – Markets Hold Breath as Ceasefire Deadline Approaches
Markets closed the week in a cautious but orderly fashion, with investors reluctant to take large positions ahead of next week’s ceasefire deadline. The two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreement, announced on 9 April, expires around 23 April, and there remains no clarity on whether it will be extended, made permanent, or allowed to collapse.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD): Profit-Taking Into the Weekend
Gold eased to approximately $4,745 per ounce, retreating from Thursday’s weekly high of $4,780 as some traders locked in profits ahead of the weekend. Despite the pullback, gold posted a weekly gain of approximately 1.1%, reflecting the market’s underlying nervousness about the ceasefire’s durability.
In rand terms, gold remained elevated at approximately R78,500 per ounce, continuing to support the JSE’s gold mining sector. AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields both held their weekly gains.
📊 JSE: Modest Recovery Ahead of Critical Week
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) recovered modestly to close at approximately 117,100 points, up 0.3% on the session. The Top 40 Index ended the week around 108,800. While the ALSI is down approximately 2% from its post-ceasefire highs, the index remains well above the pre-ceasefire levels below 115,000.
For the week, the JSE saw a mixed performance:
- Gold miners: +3.2% (safe-haven bid)
- Banks: -1.8% (rate cut expectations dimming)
- Retailers: -1.5% (consumer spending concerns)
- Energy (Sasol): +4.1% (oil price recovery)
💰 Rand (USD/ZAR): Stabilising After Midweek Weakness
The rand recovered slightly to approximately R16.55 per US dollar, clawing back some of Thursday’s losses. The currency was supported by mild improvements in global risk sentiment after US Secretary of State signalled that ceasefire extension talks were “progressing.”
For the week, the rand weakened approximately 0.7% against the dollar, reflecting the net negative impact of fading ceasefire optimism and higher oil prices.
📅 Week in Review
The week was characterised by a steady erosion of the ceasefire-driven optimism that had lifted markets so dramatically the previous week. Key developments included:
- The Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively constrained despite the ceasefire
- SA inflation edging up to 3.1%, dimming rate cut hopes
- Oil prices recovering to $96–98 per barrel
- Gold reclaiming its position above $4,700
🔍 Week Ahead: All Eyes on the Ceasefire
Next week promises to be pivotal. The ceasefire deadline around 23 April will dominate market sentiment. Investors should prepare for elevated volatility regardless of the outcome — an extension would likely trigger a relief rally, while a collapse could see a sharp return to risk-off positioning.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, or investment advice. Old Mutual Secunda is an authorised Financial Services Provider. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Old Mutual is a Licensed Financial Services Provider (FSP 604).
