Daily Market Update: 31 March 2026 — Quarter Ends With Iran Crisis, Gold Crash & Rand Pressure

Good morning from Old Mutual Secunda! Here’s your daily market update for Tuesday, 31 March 2026 — the final trading day of a turbulent quarter.

💱 Forex Snapshot

The rand is trading around R17.18/$, near its weakest since late November, weighed down by a stronger US dollar and surging crude oil prices. The rand has lost nearly 8% in March alone — its worst monthly performance in over a year — as the Middle East crisis drove investors into dollar-denominated safe havens.

The SARB held rates steady at 6.75% at its March meeting, signaling potential hikes if oil-driven inflation risks increase further.

🪙 Commodities

Gold’s dramatic March reversal: After hitting an all-time high of $5,608/oz in January, gold has plunged over 14% this month — its worst monthly drop since 2008. The oil-driven inflation shock pushed investors toward a hawkish interest rate outlook, undermining gold’s appeal. Despite the selloff, gold remains 46% higher year-on-year.

Oil remains the dominant story: Brent crude retreated to ~$107/bbl after earlier gains, following reports that Trump may end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai, and Houthis have entered the conflict by targeting Israel — further threatening global energy flows.

📊 JSE Update

The JSE All Share Index closed at 112,418 points on Monday, gaining 0.57% on the day but down a brutal 11.5% for March. The index hit an all-time high of 129,339 earlier this month before the Iran crisis sent markets tumbling. Despite the pullback, the JSE remains nearly 27% higher than a year ago.

📰 Headlines That Matter for SA

1. 🇮🇷 Iran Crisis Reshapes Global Energy

The Middle East conflict enters its fifth week with Iran effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump reportedly willing to end the campaign even with Hormuz closed, while Iran struck a Kuwaiti tanker near Dubai. Houthi forces have opened a new front. SA impact: Fuel price increases incoming, diesel shortages already affecting citrus farmers ahead of export season.

2. ⛽ SA Citrus Farmers Flag Fuel Crisis

Reuters reports South African citrus farmers are experiencing isolated diesel shortages as the industry braces for further fuel price increases. With the export season starting in April, logistics costs could squeeze margins significantly. Agriculture contributes ~2.5% of GDP and is a major employer.

3. 🏦 Fed Holds Firm Amid Uncertainty

Fed Chair Powell confirmed US inflation expectations remain “anchored” despite the conflict, with the central bank positioned to assess the economic impact of the Iran war before moving rates. A hawkish Fed supports dollar strength, adding further pressure on the rand and emerging market currencies.

🔮 Outlook

End-of-quarter dynamics may drive some volatility today as portfolio managers rebalance. All eyes remain on the Iran situation — any de-escalation signal could trigger sharp rallies in both equities and the rand.

Key data this week:

• Today: SA Balance of Trade (February)
• Wednesday: Absa Manufacturing PMI (March) + S&P Global Composite PMI
• Friday: US Non-Farm Payrolls

Watch for: April 1 brings Eskom’s new electricity tariffs — another cost pressure on businesses and consumers already squeezed by high fuel prices.

Disclaimer: This market update is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Old Mutual Secunda is an authorised financial services provider.