Daily Market Update – 5 March 2026

📊 Market Snapshot – Wednesday 4 March 2026

💱 Forex Rates

🪙 Commodities

🌍 Global Headlines

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 US-Iran War Continues – Senate Blocks War Powers Resolution

Senate Republicans voted 53-47 to block a war powers resolution that would have restricted President Trump from continuing military strikes on Iran without congressional approval. US and Israeli airstrikes continue across Iran, while Iran has retaliated with strikes on the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and drone attacks on the US Embassy in Riyadh. The IAEA confirmed no damage to Iranian nuclear facilities thus far. Market impact: Safe-haven demand continues to support gold and the US dollar, while oil prices remain elevated on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears.

🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz Effectively Shut Down

Iran has largely halted oil and gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for several days through drone strikes and intimidation. Tanker traffic has dropped by approximately 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait to avoid risk. This threatens roughly 20% of global oil supply. Goldman Sachs has raised its Q2 Brent forecast by $10 to $76/bbl. Market impact: Oil spiked above $85 earlier in the week but eased on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia signalled output increases. A prolonged closure could push oil past $100.

🇺🇸🇪🇸 Trump Threatens Full Trade Embargo on Spain

President Trump threatened to “cut off all trade” with Spain after the European ally refused to allow US use of its military bases for the Iran bombing campaign. Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez doubled down, saying “No to war,” while France’s Macron expressed solidarity with Spain. The EU signalled readiness to defend member interests. Market impact: Added to EUR/USD downward pressure and broader European trade uncertainty. US-Spain bilateral trade exceeds $46 billion annually.

🇺🇸 Fed Beige Book: Modest Growth, Tariff-Driven Inflation

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reported “slight to moderate” economic growth over the past seven weeks. Three-quarters of Fed districts noted tariff-related price increases. Employment remained “relatively stable” with minimal hiring changes. Market impact: Reinforces the view that the Fed will hold rates steady for longer amid sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

📈 Global Markets

US equities staged a rebound on Wednesday, shaking off the previous session’s selloff. Tech stocks led the charge with a megacap rally pushing the Nasdaq 100 up 1.5%. Consumer discretionary was the best-performing sector (+2%), while Moderna surged 15% on patent litigation resolution. The Dow snapped a three-session losing streak.

Investors appeared to look past Iran conflict fears as hopes grew for contained escalation and Saudi output increases to stabilise oil markets. Bitcoin and crypto-linked shares also soared during the session.

🇿🇦 South Africa Focus

Rand Recovers After Steep Selloff

The rand clawed back ground on Wednesday, trading at R16.40/$ after Tuesday’s 2.5% plunge. The JSE All-Share Index recovered about 1.5% after dropping 5.5% on Tuesday in the global risk-off selloff.

Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop noted that Gulf states discussing responses to Iran’s attacks, combined with Saudi Arabia’s commitment to raising oil output, helped lift sentiment. South African commodity exports – particularly gold and platinum – also provided a tailwind.

Economy: Picking Up but Fragile

Economists note that SA’s economy is recovering but hasn’t reached a turning point. GDP growth is forecast at 1.6% for 2026 and 2% by 2028. Gross fixed-capital formation remains weak at just 14% of GDP (versus the ideal 25%+), and unemployment stays stubbornly high. A new R2 billion water conservation bond was announced by Rand Merchant Bank and the DBSA to fund ecological restoration.

The benchmark 2035 government bond rallied, with the yield down 9.5 basis points to 8.23%.

💡 Financial Planning Implications

For Investors

Gold continues to smash records above $5,000/oz. While tempting to chase, remember that safe-haven rallies can reverse sharply when tensions ease. Diversification remains your best friend. Ensure your portfolio isn’t over-concentrated in any single asset class or region.

For Borrowers

Rising oil prices could reignite inflation concerns, potentially delaying interest rate cuts in South Africa. If you’re considering a home loan or vehicle finance, locking in current rates may be prudent. The SARB is likely to remain cautious while watching both local and global developments.

For Retirement Savers

Market volatility driven by geopolitical events is typically short-lived. Stay the course with your long-term retirement strategy. These are the moments where panic selling does the most damage. If your risk profile is appropriate, this volatility creates opportunities for your monthly contributions to buy at lower prices.

Need guidance for your financial plan? Contact us or call 017 620 3990.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This market update is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available information as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Old Mutual Secunda and its representatives accept no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this information.

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