Daily Market Update – 8 March 2026

📊 Market Snapshot – Friday 7 March Close

💱 Forex Rates

🏆 Commodities

🌍 Global Headlines

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel–Iran War Escalates Into Second Week

The Israel–Iran conflict intensified dramatically this week. Israeli Air Force strikes targeted Tehran oil depots and fuel distribution facilities on Saturday, with Netanyahu vowing to carry on “with all our force.” The US has also participated in strikes on Iranian provinces, with at least eight killed in a central province on Saturday. Iran’s president apologised to Gulf nations for retaliatory missile fallout as the Arab League called an emergency meeting for Sunday. Oil prices have surged roughly 30% in a week on fears of Strait of Hormuz disruption — a critical chokepoint for global oil supply.

🇺🇸 US Jobs Report Shocks Markets

Friday’s February jobs report was a bombshell: nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 — far worse than the expected gain of 50,000. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, signalling significant labour market softening. This is the first outright jobs decline in months and has dramatically shifted expectations for Fed rate cuts. Markets sold off sharply on the double hit of weak jobs data and surging oil prices.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia–Ukraine: Prisoner Exchange Amid Continued Strikes

In a rare positive development, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 500 prisoners over two days following trilateral talks in Geneva. However, fighting continues unabated — Russian missile strikes on Kharkiv and Dnipro killed at least 10 people on Friday, triggering a nationwide air alert across Ukraine.

🇱🇧 Israel Launches Raids Into Lebanon

Israeli special forces launched a rare deep raid into eastern Lebanon searching for the remains of an MIA soldier from the 1980s. The operation prompted clashes that killed at least 41 people according to Lebanese officials, while the Israeli military also struck Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut following rocket attacks on northern Israel.

📈 Global Markets

US Indices – Friday 7 March Close

All three major US indices posted their worst weekly performance in nearly a year. The Dow has retreated sharply from its February peak above 50,500. The VIX fear gauge jumped 24% to 29.49 — well above comfort levels.

Key drivers:

• February jobs report shock (92,000 jobs lost vs 50,000 expected gain)
• Oil prices surging above $90/barrel on Middle East conflict
• Stagflation fears — weak growth combined with inflationary energy prices
• Nvidia down 3%, Amazon down 2.6%, Caterpillar down 3.5%
• Defensive plays (J&J, Coca-Cola) held up; Boeing rose 4%

Fed Watch: Traders are now pricing in a higher likelihood of earlier rate cuts to support growth, though surging oil complicates the picture. The CPI report due next week will be critical for the Fed’s next move.

🇿🇦 South Africa Focus

Rand Under Pressure as Oil Surges

The rand weakened to around R16.55/USD as the Middle East conflict sent shockwaves through emerging markets. The combination of dollar strength and surging oil prices — South Africa’s biggest import — is a double blow for the local currency.

SARB Rate Cut Hopes Fading

The South African Reserve Bank’s plans for further interest rate cuts are now clouded by rising oil prices. With Brent crude pushing toward $94/barrel, fuel price hikes are inevitable, threatening to push inflation higher. Earlier hopes for at least two more 25 basis point cuts in 2026 are now uncertain. KPMG’s Frank Blackmore warned of “far-reaching implications” from oil and rand depreciation.

Fuel Price Hikes Loom

South African consumers face significant fuel price increases in the coming weeks if oil prices remain elevated. Higher fuel costs feed through to food prices, transport, and the broader economy — adding to the cost-of-living squeeze that many households are already feeling.

Gold: A Silver Lining

Gold at $5,181/oz is a positive for South Africa’s mining sector and export revenue. Gold mining shares and royalties provide a natural hedge against rand weakness, partially offsetting the negative oil impact on the trade balance.

💡 Financial Planning Implications

For Investors

Markets are volatile and fear is elevated (VIX near 30). This is not the time to panic sell — but it is a reminder of why diversification matters. Investors with exposure to gold, commodities, and defensive sectors have been rewarded this week. If you’ve been meaning to review your portfolio allocation, now is the time.

For Borrowers

The prospect of further rate cuts from the SARB has dimmed. If you’re on a variable rate, don’t count on rates coming down soon. Consider fixing a portion of your debt if you’re uncomfortable with rate uncertainty. Those with dollar-denominated obligations should be aware of rand weakness.

For Retirement Savers

Weeks like this test your resolve. Remember: retirement savings are long-term. The investors who build wealth are those who stay the course through volatility, not those who try to time the market. Continue your contributions — buying during dips means acquiring assets at lower prices.

For Everyone

Budget for higher fuel prices in the coming weeks. Build or maintain an emergency fund — 3 to 6 months of expenses is the target. If global uncertainty is keeping you up at night, speak to a qualified financial adviser about stress-testing your financial plan.

📞 Speak to Us

Uncertain times call for professional guidance. Whether you need to review your investments, adjust your risk cover, or simply make sense of what’s happening in the markets — we’re here to help.

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Disclaimer: This update is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Market data is sourced from publicly available information and may be subject to delay. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Old Mutual Secunda is an authorised financial services provider.