Daily Market Update – 9 February 2026

📊 Market Snapshot

Here’s where key currencies and commodities closed on Friday, 7 February 2026:

💱 Forex Rates

🥇 Commodities

🌍 Global Headlines

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Sanctions Bite Harder

The EU’s sanctions envoy confirmed Western sanctions are having a “significant impact” on the Russian economy ahead of the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. The EU is also preparing stricter sanctions on Russian oil trade, with new measures targeting secondary sanctions on firms dealing with Russian exports. Meanwhile, the Kremlin continues attempting to use potential US-Russian economic deals to leverage negotiations on Ukraine.

Market Impact: Ongoing sanctions support elevated gold prices as a safe-haven asset, while uncertainty around Russian oil supply keeps energy markets volatile.

🇺🇸📦 Trump Tariffs: Trade War Continues

The Trump administration’s tariff regime remains in full effect, with the IMF warning of a potential “spiral of escalation” threatening global growth. Key developments:

• India tariffs (25% penalty for buying Russian oil) set to be withdrawn after Modi’s agreement to stop Russian oil purchases
• Pharmaceutical tariffs could potentially rise toward 200% by mid-to-late 2026
• Tax Foundation estimates tariffs will cost US households an additional $1,300 in 2026

Market Impact: Ongoing tariff uncertainty contributed to recent tech sector volatility and continues to weigh on global trade-sensitive stocks.

🇩🇪💶 Germany’s Trillion-Euro Stimulus

Germany is rolling out a massive €1 trillion fiscal spending programme on infrastructure and defence – one of the biggest fiscal stimuli in European history. The programme aims to reinvigorate the eurozone’s largest economy and strengthen NATO capabilities.

Market Impact: Supporting the euro’s strength against the dollar and boosting European equities, particularly in infrastructure and defence sectors.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran Tensions

Disagreements over the agenda in high-stakes US-Iran talks caused oil prices to spike on Friday. Progress on nuclear negotiations remains elusive, keeping Middle East risk premiums elevated in energy markets.

Market Impact: Brent crude rebounded over 1% on Friday as geopolitical risk premiums returned.

📈 Global Markets

🇺🇸 US Indices (Friday Close)

🎉 Historic Milestone: The Dow Jones closed above 50,000 for the first time ever on Thursday, rebounding strongly from a three-day selloff driven by tech sector weakness.

🏦 Federal Reserve Update

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in January. Chair Jerome Powell indicated signs of stabilisation in the labor market and disinflation in certain consumer price categories. Markets now expect three additional 25bp cuts totalling 0.75% throughout 2026.

📅 Key Economic Data This Week

• Wednesday 11 Feb: US CPI Inflation (January)
• Thursday 12 Feb: OPEC Monthly Oil Report, IEA Monthly Report
• Friday 13 Feb: US Retail Sales (January)

🇿🇦 South Africa Focus

💪 Rand Strength Continues

The South African rand has been one of the best-performing emerging market currencies:

• Year-to-date 2026: Up approximately 3%
• 2025 performance: Gained around 12%
• Current level: R15.99/$ (strongest since early 2024)

The rand’s strength is supported by commodity prices, structural reforms, fiscal consolidation, credible SARB monetary policy, and the stability of the Government of National Unity (GNU).

🏦 SARB Outlook

The South African Reserve Bank cut rates by 100 basis points in 2025 and is expected to deliver another 50 basis points of cuts in 2026. Governor Kganyago’s forward guidance indicates monthly inflation should maintain a “3% handle” throughout 2026, with the annual average around 3.5%.

📊 Key SA Data Points

• Inflation: Tracking around 3.5% (well within target)
• Debt-to-GDP: Expected to stabilise at 77.9%
• Growth Outlook: Modest improvement expected as reforms take hold

💡 Financial Planning Implications

For Investors

• Gold at $5,000+: While gold has performed exceptionally, consider whether your portfolio is appropriately diversified across asset classes
• Rand strength: Offshore investments may show currency drag in rand terms – this is normal in a strong-rand environment
• Equity volatility: Tech sector swings remind us why a balanced, long-term approach beats market timing

For Borrowers

• Rate cuts coming: With SARB expected to cut another 50bps, variable-rate borrowers should see relief
• Consider fixing: If you’re near the end of a fixed period, now may be a good time to review your options

For Retirement Savers

• Stay the course: Market volatility is normal – avoid making emotional decisions
• Inflation on target: With SA inflation well-controlled, your real returns should remain positive
• Review contributions: The new tax year is approaching – consider maximising your retirement contributions

📞 Get Personal Advice

Markets move daily, but your financial plan should be built for the long term. If you’d like to discuss how these market movements affect your specific situation, contact Old Mutual Secunda for a personalised consultation.

📞 Call Us: 017 620 3990

Disclaimer: This market update is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market data is sourced from public financial information services and may be subject to delays. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment values can go up or down, and you may get back less than you invested. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Old Mutual Secunda is an authorised financial services provider.