Daily Market Update – 13 March 2026

📊 Market Snapshot – 13 March 2026

Markets are reeling from an escalating Middle East crisis. Iran’s new Supreme Leader has vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil has surged past $100/barrel, and Wall Street suffered its worst session of 2026. Here’s everything you need to know.

💱 Forex Rates

🥇 Commodities

🌍 Global Headlines

🇮🇷 Iran’s New Supreme Leader Vows Strait of Hormuz Stays Shut

In what markets are calling the “Mojtaba Ultimatum,” Iran’s new Supreme Leader has declared the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. Oil tankers have been attacked and set ablaze in Iraqi and Gulf waters, with at least one crew member killed and others trapped. The IRGC has deployed naval mines, and CENTCOM has destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the strait. This is the single biggest driver of market chaos right now — roughly 20% of global oil transits through Hormuz.

🇮🇱 Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates

Northern Israel came under massive joint missile and drone attack from Iran and Hezbollah. The IDF responded by striking and destroying Hezbollah missile launchers in Lebanon. The widening conflict is stoking fears of a prolonged regional war with devastating economic consequences.

🛢️ IEA Orders Largest-Ever Emergency Oil Release

The International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency crude reserves — more than double any previous release. The US alone is contributing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Despite this historic intervention, oil still surged past $100 as markets doubt the release can offset a prolonged Hormuz closure.

🇺🇦 Ukraine Strikes Russian Electronics Plant

Ukrainian forces hit a key facility supplying electronic components for the Russian war machine. Meanwhile, Russia’s scorched-earth attacks have pushed Ukraine’s power grid near collapse, with critical substations in Kyiv targeted. A diplomatic row between Ukraine and Hungary over the Druzhba oil pipeline has also deepened.

🇺🇸 Trump Eases Russia Oil Sanctions

President Trump signalled that oil-related sanctions on Russia will be eased until the Iran crisis subsides, in an attempt to increase global oil supply and calm energy markets.

📈 Global Markets

The Dow closed at a new 2026 low below 47,000 — the worst session of the year. The sell-off was broad-based, with energy costs weighing on corporate earnings outlooks. Tech stocks led losses as risk appetite evaporated.

The IEA’s record oil release provided only brief relief. Markets are now watching whether Hormuz can be reopened or whether we’re heading into a sustained oil supply crisis.

🇿🇦 South Africa Focus

📊 First Current Account Surplus in Two Years

In a significant bright spot, the SARB announced South Africa recorded a current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP in Q4 2025 — the first surplus in over two years, swinging from a -0.9% deficit in Q3. The trade surplus widened dramatically to R282.2 billion, driven by surging gold and mining exports.

💰 Rand Under Pressure Despite Good News

The rand weakened to around R16.57/USD despite the positive current account data. Escalating Middle East tensions, surging oil prices, and global risk aversion are overpowering local fundamentals. South Africa is a net oil importer, making $100 Brent a significant headwind for inflation and the trade balance going forward.

📉 JSE Slips

The JSE All Share Index fell approximately 0.8% on Thursday, tracking global risk-off sentiment. Standard Bank was a notable outperformer (up 2.8% intraday) after reporting record profits, but couldn’t lift the broader market.

🏦 World Bank Loan Prospects

South Africa appears set to secure a significant World Bank loan, supported by perceptions of greater government stability under the coalition. However, this positive development has been overshadowed by global macro headwinds.

📊 GDP Growth

Full-year 2025 GDP growth came in at 1.1%, with Q4 expanding 0.4% — slightly below the 0.5-0.6% consensus. Modest, but five consecutive quarters of growth is a foundation to build on.

💡 Financial Planning Implications

For Investors

Volatility creates opportunity — but also risk. This is not the time for panic selling. Well-diversified portfolios with exposure to commodities (gold, mining stocks) are providing a natural hedge against geopolitical turmoil. Review your asset allocation with your financial adviser.

For Borrowers

If oil stays above $100, inflation pressures will build globally and locally. This could delay or reverse interest rate cuts. If you have variable-rate debt, consider your options now — locking in fixed rates may be prudent.

For Retirement Savers

Days like yesterday are uncomfortable, but long-term investors have time on their side. Stay the course with your retirement strategy. Market downturns mean your regular contributions buy more units at lower prices — this is how wealth is built over decades.

For Rand-Hedging

With the rand under pressure and oil surging, offshore exposure in your portfolio is acting as a buffer. Don’t neglect the importance of currency diversification in uncertain times.

📞 Speak to a Financial Adviser

Uncertain times call for professional guidance. Whether you’re reviewing your investments, considering your debt strategy, or planning for retirement — we’re here to help.

📞 Call us: 017 620 3990

📞 Call Us: 017 620 3990

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Disclaimer: This market update is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Old Mutual Secunda and its representatives do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information presented. Market conditions change rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment or financial decisions. Old Mutual is a Licensed Financial Services Provider (FSP 604).