Daily Market Update – 14 March 2026

📊 Market Snapshot – Friday 13 March Close

💱 Forex Rates

🥇 Commodities

🌍 Global Headlines

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US Strikes Iran’s Kharg Island — Oil Infrastructure Threatened

In a dramatic escalation on Day 14 of the US-Israel war on Iran, President Trump announced the US military “obliterated every military target” on Iran’s Kharg Island — the country’s main oil export hub. Trump warned that oil infrastructure would be next if Iran interferes with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively blocked. Brent crude closed above $100 for the second consecutive day as tanker traffic through the strait remains at a standstill.

🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iran Fires Missiles at Israel; UAE Intercepts Hundreds of Drones

Iran launched a fresh round of missiles towards Israel just after midnight on Saturday, though Israeli rescue workers reported no casualties. The UAE’s air defences have now dealt with 285 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and over 1,567 drones since the conflict began. Hezbollah claimed 36 attacks on Israeli positions in a 24-hour period. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to keep fighting and threatened to open “other fronts.”

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine Peace Talks Postponed

President Zelenskyy confirmed that the US sought a postponement of the latest round of three-sided peace talks on the Ukraine conflict. No breakthrough has been reached despite several rounds of negotiations. France’s President Macron criticised Russia for seeking a “respite” while the Middle East burns, insisting European support for Ukraine will not weaken.

🇺🇸 Trump Eases Russian Oil Sanctions

In a move to address the energy crisis, Trump signalled he would ease oil-related sanctions on Russia to help stabilise global supply while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. This complicates Western efforts to punish Moscow for the Ukraine war but reflects the urgency of the global energy squeeze.

📈 Global Markets

Wall Street Closes Lower — 3rd Straight Week of Losses

All three major US indices set fresh closing lows for 2026. Tech stocks led the decline as the Nasdaq fell nearly 1%. Investors pared back rate-cut expectations as the oil shock fuels inflation fears. The 2-year Treasury yield surged from 3.8% to 4.4% in recent weeks as traders erased nearly all probability of a Fed rate cut before Q3 2026.

🏛️ Federal Reserve — March Meeting Next Week

The Fed meets on 17–18 March and is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Core PCE inflation sits at 3.1% — well above the Fed’s 2% target. The “Iran Shock” energy spike has complicated the inflation outlook, with the upcoming PCE report being described as the Fed’s “ultimate litmus test.” Spring rate cut hopes have all but evaporated.

🇿🇦 South Africa Focus

Rand Heading for Second Weekly Loss

The rand extended its fall on Friday, heading for a second consecutive week of losses as surging energy prices rattled emerging markets. At R16.91/USD, the currency is under significant pressure from the oil shock and rising risk aversion globally.

SARB Rate Cut in March Now Unlikely

Analysts now believe the SARB will not cut rates at its March meeting. Elevated oil prices and a depreciating rand pose upside risks to inflation. The Bloomberg consensus inflation forecast for 2026 has risen from 3.3% to potentially 3.7% or higher if the oil shock persists.

JSE Falls 1.5% — Nearing Correction Territory

The FTSE/JSE All Share Index dropped 1.5% to 115,252 on Friday, with analysts warning South African stocks are approaching a 10% correction from recent highs as the Middle East conflict drags on.

Bright Spot: Current Account Surplus

South Africa recorded a current account surplus in Q4 2025, with imports falling by R54.4 billion due to a previously stronger rand. The country has also been removed from the FATF grey list, and GDP growth has exceeded 1% — modest but genuine progress.

💡 Financial Planning Implications

For Investors

Markets are volatile. This is not the time to panic-sell, but it is a good time to review your portfolio’s diversification. Gold and commodities continue to act as a hedge against geopolitical risk. If you’re invested in rand-denominated assets, the weaker rand may actually boost returns on offshore holdings.

For Borrowers

The expected SARB rate cut is now on hold. If you have variable-rate debt, don’t count on lower repayments just yet. Use this time to build a buffer or consider fixing your rate while the pause lasts.

For Retirement Savers

The oil shock is a short-to-medium-term disruption. For long-term retirement portfolios, staying the course remains the best strategy. Market dips often present buying opportunities for those with a 10+ year horizon. Speak to a financial adviser before making changes to your retirement strategy.

Need guidance on how these market moves affect your finances?

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⚠️ Disclaimer

This market update is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The information presented reflects market conditions as at 13 March 2026 and may change rapidly. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Old Mutual Secunda is an authorised financial services provider. For personalised advice, contact us or call 017 620 3990.